In this scenario the overshoot seems pretty clear though. The fridge turned on just before the profile temp went up, and stayed on for its minimum on time.
Temp overshot, and after the mutex lockout the heater kicked in.
It’s hard to say whether PID settings need tuning, as right now it mostly demonstrated side effects of constraints.
Don’t expect the PID settings that are suggested based on 20L of beer to work on a small glass of water. Your beer dropped a few degrees in minutes. The PID is not tuned for that.
It could be tuned for that, but that’s probably not what you want.
Try with a sensor deep in 20L of beer and then see if the settings need tuning.